Evidence Regarding Ethiopia's Import-Export of Mushrooms

Ethiopia has favorable agro-climate, topography, relatively low-cost labor, and rich fungal biodiversity. However, the country has a poor response to mushroom production and hence, currently, a huge amount of mushrooms is imported to the country. Information on the import-export trends of the mushrooms trade and market is lacking for taking appropriate measures. The study aims to evaluate the current status and future trends as well as prospects of mushroom import export in Ethiopia. The imported-exported data were collected from Ethiopian Custom Commission in the years of 1997 – 2020. The analysis was conducted using descriptive statistical tools and the ARIMA model in excel and STATA, respectively. The result indicates that the average imported and exported quantity is 88.3 and 5.1 tonnes of mushrooms per year, respectively. Similarly, the country spent an average of US$ 154,199 per year on imported mushrooms while it earned an average of US$ 11,074 per year from exported mushrooms, which is a trade deficit. The result further indicated that on average the quantities of mushrooms imported to the country and the expenditure to import increased yearly by 53 % and 44%, respectively. The forecasted result shows that Ethiopia will spend 483,528.3 US$ on mushroom imports in 2040 as indicated in the findings. However, mushroom productions pave the way for national revenue if given serious consideration and will reduce the food import value. Further, it is recommended that the country has to emphasize the expansion of mushrooms to meet the growing demand and substitute the imported mushroom.


MATERIALS AND METHODS
The data for this study were acquired from the Ethiopian Customs and Revenues Authority (ECRA) of import-export data iwithin ithe periods of 1997-2020. The Ethiopian Customs Commission provided iraw istatistics ion ithe international itrade of mushrooms for the years 1997-2020 (ECC).iThe data iused ifor ithis istudy consists iof annual itime series idata iof ii) iimport value iand volume, iand ii) iexport ivalue iand volume iof mushroom Ethiopia iduring ithe iyear 1997 ito 2020.iFor ithe imported imushrooms, cost, insurance, iand ifreight (CIF) values; iwhile for the exported imushrooms, free on board (FOB) values were used in the analysis. We used conversion to the import-export value of the local currency (Birr) iinto iUS$, ibased on the exchange rate idata iobtained ifrom ithe National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) for the different months and years. The trend of mushroom importexport was icomputed iusing iExcel i(Microsoft Corp., Redmond, iWA, iUSA).iThe itrade ibalance was calculated iby isubtracting ithe iimported quantities/expenditures to import from the exported quantities/incomes generated in the same years' time period. Overall, for the data analysis, descriptive statistical methods and inferential statistics, as well as the results, were presented through graphs and tables.i The iforecast iof imushroom itrade iwas ialso estimated using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The ARIMA is expressed as AR: (p=degree of the autoregressive part); I: (d=degree of the difference involved), and MA: (q=degree of the mean part).iThe iARIMA model iwas ideveloped in the 1970s by George Box and iGwilym Jenkins ito idescribe ichanges iin the time iseries using ia imathematical iapproach also known ias ia BOX-iPierce imodel.iBox iand Pierce refer to the set of procedures for identifying, fitting, and checking ARIMA models with time-series data. Forecasts follow from the form of fitted model (Box and Pierce, 1970). The ARIMA model is expressed as follows: Determine whether the series is stationary or not by considering the graph of the Partial Correlation function (ACF).iIf a graph of ACF of the time series values either cuts off fairly quickly or dies down fairly quickly, then the time series should be considered stationary. If a graph of ACF dies down extremely slowly then the time series is non-stationary.iIf ithe iseries iis inot istationary, iit can be transformed idata ito ia istationary iseries by differencing. The graph of the autocorrelation function (ACF) and the Partial Correlation function (PACF) was used to determine the model.

Import-export trend and status of mushrooms in Ethiopia
World imushroom iproduction ihas igradually increased ifrom i0.30 imillion itons ito i3.41 million tons over the last 50 years from 1965 to 2015i(Singh iet ial., i2017). Resultantly, the world trade trend shows that the mushroom export/import has also continuously increased during the period. The import quantities and expenditure of mushrooms in Ethiopia are presented in Figure 1 between the years of i1997 -2020. Accordingly, the country imported a total and an average of i2,118.9 and i88.3 tonnes of mushrooms iper iyear.iOn ithe other hand, the estimated result shows that the country ihas iexported ia itotal iof i87 itonnes iof mushrooms iwith ia iyearly iaverage iof i5.1 itonnes (Table). From such quantities of exports, the country earned a total income of about i$188,262.7 and ion iaverage i$11,074 per year. Regarding the expenditure, ithe icountry ispent i$3,700,786.05 ifor mushroom iimport.iThis iresult isuggests ithat ithe quantity iof iimported imushrooms iis igreater ithan export iby i89% iin ithe icountry.iThis irevealed that ithe country is heavily dependent on imported mushrooms which leads to an imbalance between import and export of mushroom trade. The finding implies on the export front, till, Ethiopian contribution to the world mushroom trade was almost negligible compared to import.
The ifindings iindicated ithat iEthiopia ispent millions iof i$ ito iimport imushrooms.iThis iresult is icomparable iwith iprevious iempirical ipieces iof evidence that showed the demand for fresh mushrooms exceeds the supply (Sileshi, 2014). As a result, the existing few fresh mushroomiproducers for example in Addis Ababa could not meet the demand of the market. Due to this, many supermarkets imported a huge amount of chemically preserved mushrooms from different countries (Sileshi, 2014). On the export side, Ethiopia began exporting mushrooms in 2004 but did not export any from 2009 to 2013 for unexplained reasons (see Table 1). The only highest quantities iof imushrooms iexported ifrom Ethiopia and iincomes iwere igenerated iin i2006 (Table 1). Studies in the past stated that even if the mushroom is produced in Ethiopia, there are challenges that affect the commercial mushroom production; such as lack of capital investment to start up, diseases, lack of physical materials, lack of training and experience, lack of support from governments and other bodies (Gebretsadkan, 2015;Sileshi, 2014). To achieve sustainable production and marketing of mushrooms should require considerable investments to develop a contemporary mushroom farm (Raut, 2019). The expenses of imported mushroom results indicated that the total spent of import is about US$ 3,700,786 as well as yearly expenditure was US$ 154,199 from different countries. The expenses to import mushroom in Ethiopia was much higher than the income generated from the export of mushroom into the country. The trend analysis result for the relative quantities and expenditure of imported mushrooms is also presented in Figure 1 from 1997-2020. The estimated result indicated that the average yearly quantities and expenditure trends of imported mushrooms are 53 % and 44%, respectively.  (1997 -2020) The trade balance of both import mushroom quantity and expenditure revealed that the import and export quantity is not balanced ( Table 2). The findings iindicated ithat imost iof ithe iyears ithe imported quantity iof imushrooms iwas ihigher than exported quantities which is a trade deficit.iOverall, the itrade ibalance iresult ishowed that ion iaverage the iquantities iof imushrooms exported ifrom Ethiopia iwere imuch iless ithan imported iby i84.7 tonnes.iLikewise, ithe iyearly average income from the export is much less than the expenditure of imports by US$ 146,355.iThe existence of a trade gap in mushroom when customers are increasingly looking for high-quality products (Raut, 2019). In general, the incomes generated from the export of mushrooms were much iless ithan ithe expenditure of iimport iby 92.8%.iThis isuggests ithat ithe country ihas ito give idue iattention ito ireducing the iexpenditure from ithe iimport iby iexpanding icommercial farms of mushrooms in the country through diversification of livelihoods and income generating activities (Sileshi, 2014). Evidence showed that existing market demand and supply of mushrooms in the local market is at a rudimentary Trend of mushroom expenditure change stage idue ito inefficient iproduction and ipoor quality iof ithe products (Sileshi, i2014;Getachew et ial., i2016). The extent of mushroom import-export in Ethiopia with different countries The iimport idata iof imushrooms ishows ithat Ethiopia imported from 29 countries in the years of 1997 -2020ias well as exported to 12 countries from 2004-2020. This implies that Ethiopia is involved within a few countries for the export and many for import mushrooms. The major mushroom importer countries to Ethiopia are presented in Figure 2 between the years 1997-2020. Among importer countries, United Arab Emirates iare ithe dominant which accounts 53%, followed by the Netherlands (24%), Italy (10%), China (6%), Belgium (3%), Djibouti (2%), Malaysia (1.0%) and Turkey (1.0%). The result indicates that European countries iare ithe imajor isuppliers iof imushrooms while imushroom iimport iwith iAfrican icountries was ilimited. iThe iresult iindicated ithat imost iof the iexpenses imushroom iwas ispent ito iimport from ithe iUnited iArab iEmirates ifollowed iby China. iThis icould ifurther ishow ithat ithe iUnited Arab iEmirates iwas ithe imain isupplier ifor imost of ithe imushrooms ito iEthiopia. iSimilarly, imost of ithe iexpense ifor imushroom iimportation iwas spent iin iAsian iand iEuropean icountries iwhich could ibe irelated ito ithe idifferences iin ithe iprice tag iof ithe iimported imushroom ior ithe iquality of the iproduct ithey isupplied. iEthiopia iimported mushrooms iin ithe iyears iof i1997-2020 only in a few African countries such as limited only Djibouti. This icould ifurther ishow ithat ithe itrade linkage in mushroom ibetween iEthiopia iand other African countries iis ipoor iand ilimited ionly ito very few countries.  Figure 2. The share of major countries importing mushrooms to Ethiopia (1997Ethiopia ( -2020 On the other hand, the major mushroom export destination countries and relative income from the export are presented in Table1. Ethiopia started to export mushrooms in 2004.The finding indicates that the export quantity accounts for 85.7 %, 2.5%, 2%, 2%, 2%, 1.8%, 1.6%, 1.6% to Yemen, Italy, Sudan, Djibouti, United Arab Emirates, Netherlands, and United Kingdom, respectively. Likewise, about 64.4 %, 1%, 0.9%, 0.4%, and 28.8 % of mushroom income was gained from Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Italy, Sudan, and the United Kingdom, correspondingly. This result indicates that Yemen was the major destination country for the exported mushrooms of Ethiopia.

Forecasted Mushroom Trade
The forecast of mushroom trade is analyzed from 2021 to 2040, for 20 years ( Figure 6). The import and export value, the time series, ACF, and PACF plots of the first-difference time series are also presented in the result. The first difference in time series is stationary, as can be seen from the time series plot (constant mean and approximately constant variance. The ACF and PACF plots in the spending and income case illustrate that the model would be appropriate for the first-differenced data. The best models are chosen from among the competing models based on the minimum value of the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), maximum coefficient of determination (R2), and, of course, the significance of the models' coefficients. The autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF) of the residuals are used to perform diagnostic checks on the best-fit models (Figure 4). The forecasted result based on the model of 1997-2020 iindicated ithat iin ithe iyears i2021-2040, the country's average yearly itotal iexpenses to import imushrooms iwill iincrease ifrom ithe year 1997-2040 by 50%.iAn increase in future expenses to import mushrooms can be related to an increase in ithe ivolume iof idemand iof imushrooms iin ithe country iin ithe icoming ifuture iwhich icould ibe related ito ia ipopulation iincrease.
The ARIMA model was used to forecast Ethiopia's annual import-export mushroom value figures 9 from 2021 to 2040. As a result, the ARIMA (1, 1,i0) and ARIMA (4, 1, 1) models for revenue and expense value are adequate for yearly forecasting in Tables 2 and 3.iAccording to the study, ithe imushroom iimport ihas ideveloped iat ia rapid ipace, iwith iyearly iaverage igrowth irates ias high ias 3% during the forecast years. The predicated iimport iof imushroom iexpense ivalue will reach $7,567,946 from 2021-2040 and $483,528 as well as ($-8368.70) for income value by 2040, representing a 50% increase from i2021 to 2040. As presented in the graph, the predicting value of import is increasing; whereas export value will almost be negative. The global market was worth also approximately USD 241 billion in the year 2019 and is expected to bloom up to USD 373 billion by 2025 with a growth rate of 7.5% for medicinal mushrooms (Niego et al., 2021). The driving force of its market value increment is due to the healthpromoting benefits of consuming mushrooms. On the other hand, the global edible mushrooms market is forecasted to grow at a high rate of 7.9% during 2020-2027 (Niego et al., 2021). Similarly, edible mushrooms had a global market value of USD 42.42 billion in the year 2018, USD 45.3 billion in 2020, and are forecasted to increase up to USD 62.19 billion in 2023, and USD 72.5 billion by 2027 (Niego et al., 2021).

CONCLUSION
Even though Ethiopia has favorable climatic conditions with varied topography for the production of mushrooms the findings indicated that the country is heavily dependent on imported and preserved mushrooms. Ethiopia spent US$ 3,700,786 to import mushrooms in the years of 1997-2020 and gained $188,262.7 income from 2004-2020. The trade balance of the country shows a trade deficit. The forecasted result revealed that the country will spend $7,567,946 from 2021-2040. Thus, emphasis has to be given and works strongly on the expansion of mushroom-producing companies in the country. Government initiatives such as financial aid for new producers, the introduction of new technology, and efficient packaging will help for developing the product faster by incorporating mushroom production in the agricultural and forest development strategy of the country.