The Effect of Exchange Rate and Money Supply on Exports in Indonesia
Keywords:
Exchange Rate, Exports, Money SupplyAbstract
This study aims to analyze the influence of the USD/IDR exchange rate and the money supply (M2) on Indonesia's total exports. The method used is multiple linear regression in the form of monthly data from 2019–2024, sourced from Bank Indonesia and the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). Multiple linear regression tests were conducted to identify the influence of exchange rates and money supply on exports in Indonesia. The results of the study show that partially the USD/IDR exchange rate variable has a positive but insignificant effect on Indonesian exports, and the variable money supply has a positive and significant effect on Indonesian exports. Meanwhile, the exchange rate variables and the money supply together have a significant positive effect on Indonesia's exports.
References
Adhista, M. (2022). Analysis of Exports, Imports, and Total Money Supply (M2) Against Rupiah Exchange Rate Mira Adhista Analysis of Exports, Imports, and Total Money Supply (M2) Against Value Exchange Rupiah. Growth: Scientific Journal of Development Economics, 1(2), 73–92.
Avedish, D., Wibowo, F. T., & Azmi, N. U. (2025). The Role of the Rupiah Exchange Rate and Foreign Exchange Fluctuations on Indonesia's Economic Resilience. 3(1), 223–235.
Chandra, E. K., & Wahyuningsih, D. (2021). Analysis of the Influence of Interest Rates, Money Supply and Exchange Rates on Inflation in Indonesia for the 2011-2019 Period. Bulletin of Development Economics, 2(1), 37–54.
Darsono, & Rahman, R. E. (2018). Foreign Exchange Market: Theory and Practice. PT RajaGrafindo.
Erawan, I. Nyoman Bisma Iswara, and Nyoman Djinar Setiawina. (2015). The Effect of the United States Dollar Exchange Rate, Production, and Inflation on Indonesian Corn Exports in 1981-2015. E-Journal EP Unud, 10(3), 1127–56.
Febiana, Y. F., Wahyu, W., Tias, N., Amna, D. F., Sayyid, U. I. N., Rahmatullah, A., Sayyid, U. I. N., Rahmatullah, A., Sayyid, U. I. N., Rahmatullah, A., Sayyid, U. I. N., Rahmatullah, A., Sayyid, U. I. N., & Rahmatullah, A. (2024). Analysis of the Influence of Inflation, Exchange Rate, Interest Rate, and Money Supply on the Value of Exports in Indonesia in 2020-2023. 07(02).
Fordatkosu, S., Kumaat, R. J., & Mandeij, D. (2021). Analysis of the Influence of Exports, Imports, and Money Supply (M2) in Indonesia on the Rupiah/US$ Dollar Exchange Rate (2000-2019). Scientific Periodic Journal of Efficiency, 21(7), 127–137.
Fuad Anshari, M., El Khilla, A., & Rissa Permata, I. (2017). Analysis of the Influence of Inflation and Exchange Rates on Exports in Asean Countries 5 Periods of 2012-2016. Info Artha, 1(2), 121–128.
Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. (2015). Fundamentals of Econometrics (5th Edition). Salemba Empat.
Halim, M. A. (2018). Macroeconomic Theory (3rd Edition). Media Discourse Partners.
Hard. (2018). The Effect of Exchange Rates, Exports, and Imports on the Money Supply in Indonesia with Inflation as a Moderating Variable 2011-2017. Journal of Bilncia, 2(1), 64–72.
Irawan, A., & Gurning, R. V. M. (2023). The Effect of Exchange Rates and Inflation on Crude Palm Oil (CPO) Export Volume During the Pandemic. Journal of Accounting, Economics and Business Management, 11(1), 106-113.
Khamidah, W., & Sugiharti, R. (2022). Factors Affecting the Rupiah Exchange Rate Against the US Dollar, Euro and Pound Sterling. Ecoplan, 5(1), 40–52.
Manihuruk, F. E., Silfani, D., Feby, Y., & Marbun, J. (2024). Analysis of the Influence of Exports, Imports, and Jub in Indonesia on the Rupiah/USD Exchange Rate. Journal of Economic Research, 3(2), 118–129.
Miftahul Janah, Wulan Rahmawati, Fariza Novdwikaputri, M. Ghiffari Marshal, Cep Jandi Anwar, and Indra Suhendra. (2023). Export Response Due to Exchange Rate Shocks and Money Supply in Indonesia. EKONOMIKA45: Scientific Journal of Management, Business Economics, Entrepreneurship 11(1), 549–60.
Ministry of Finance. (2024). Indonesia's Trade Balance Throughout 2023 Remains in Surplus Amid Increasing Global Economic Risks. https://fiskal.kemenkeu.go.id/publikasi/siaran-pers-detil/554
Palumpun, M. P., Oldy Rontisulu, T., & Mandeij, D. (2023). Analisis Pengaruh Produk Domestik Bruto Dunia Dan Tingkat Kurs Terhadap Ekspor Sektor Industri Di Indonesia 2007-2021. Jurnal Berkala Ilmiah Efisiensi, 23(9), 73–84.
Rahardja, P., & Manurung, M. (2019). Pengantar Ilmu Ekonomi (mikroekonomi & makroekonomi) (edisi 4). Salemba Empat.
Samosir, D. M. (2016). The Effect of Net Exports and Foreign Exchange Reserves on the Amount of Money in Circulation in Indonesia 1991-2009. Journal of Development Economics, 10 (1), 1–11.
Sari, A. C., Mukhlis, I., & Utomo, S. H. (2022). Analysis of the Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Exports and Indonesian Economic Growth in 2021. Jurnal Economina, 1(4), 908–920.
Sari, S. P., & Nurjannah, S. (2023). Analysis of the Effect of Exchange Rates, Money Supply, and the BI Rate on Inflation in Indonesia and Its Impact on Public Purchasing Power. AKTIVA: Journal of Accountancy and Management, 1(1), 21–29.
Silalahi, S. M., Aulia, J., Tobing, P. Y., & Hasanah, I. (2024). The Effect of Exchange Rates, Money Supply, and Inflation on Exports in Indonesia Using an Error Correction Model Approach for the Period 2013–2022. MANTAP: Journal of Management Accounting, Tax and Production, 2(1), 33–43.
Sitorus, C. D., Purba, M. L., & Purba, E. F. (2023). The Effect of the Rupiah Exchange Rate, Inflation, and Interest Rates on Indonesian Shrimp Exports. KAFEBIS Journal, 1(1), 21–27.
Suryono, A. (2019). The Effect of Exchange Rates and Money Supply on Indonesian Exports from 2009 to 2018. Economic Forum, 21(2), 109–118.
Ulya, U. (2024). The Effect of Money Supply (M2), BI RATE, Foreign Exchange and Export Reserves on the Exchange Rate of the Rupiah Currency Against the US Dollar [Ar-Raniry State Islamic University Banda Aceh].
Warjiyo, P., & Juhro, S. (2016). Central Bank Policy: Theory and Practice. PT RajaGrafindo.
Wijaya, E. (2021). Analysis of Indonesia's Bilateral Trade with the Marshall Lerner Condition Approach and the J Curve Phenomenon. Journal of Development Economic Dynamics, 3(3), 187–201

